Free Astronomy Magazine September-October 2025 ARABIC VERSION

His team includes researchers at Durham University, United King- dom; the University of Toulouse, France;andtheUniversityofWest- ernAustralia.Theyfoundthatthere is approximately a 50-50 chanceofthetwogalaxies colliding within the next 10 billion years. Theybasedthisconclusion on computer simulations using the latest observa- tional data. Sawalaemphasizedthat predicting the long-term futureofgalaxyinterac- tions is highly uncertain, but the new findings chal- lengethepreviouscon- sensusandsuggestthe fate of the Milky Way re- mains an open question. “Evenusingthelatestand mostpreciseobservational data available, the future of the Local Group of several dozen galax- iesisuncertain.Intriguingly,wefind an almost equal probability for the widelypublicizedmergerscenario, or,conversely,analternativeone where the Milky Way and Androm- edasurviveunscathed,” saidSawala. Thecollisionofthetwogalaxies hadseemedmuchmorelikelyin 2012,whenastronomersRoeland vanderMarelandTonySohnofthe Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore,Marylandpublisheda detailedanalysisofHubbleobserva- tions over a five-to-seven-year pe- riod, indicating a direct impact in no more than 5 billion years. “It’s somewhat ironic that, despite the additionofmorepreciseHubble data taken in recent years, we are now less certain about the outcome of a po- tential collision. That’s be- cause of the more complex analysis and because we consider a more complete system.Buttheonlywayto get to a new prediction about the eventual fate of the Milky Way will be with even better data,” said Sawala. Astronomersconsidered22 different variables that could affect the potential collision between our gal- axy and our neighbor, and ran100,000simulations SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER2025 ﻳﻀﻢ ﻓﺮﻳﻘﻪ ﺑـﺎﺣﺜ ﻣـﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﻌـﺔ دورﻫـﺎم ﺑﺎ ﻤﻠ ﻜﺔ ا ﺘﺤـﺪة وﺟﺎﻣﻌـﺔ ﺗﻮﻟـﻮز ﺑ ﻔﺮﻧﺴـﺎ وﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻏﺮب أﺳﱰاﻟﻴﺎ وﻗﺪ وﺟﺪوا أن ﻫﻨـﺎك اﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻻً ﺑﻨﺴـﺒﺔ 50-50 ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒـ ﺎً ﻻﺻـﻄﺪام ا ﺠﺮﺗ ﺧﻼل ا ﻟﻌﴩة ﻣﻠﻴﺎرات ﺳﻨﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺔ واﺳــﺘﻨﺪوا ﰲ ﻫــﺬا اﻻﺳــﺘﻨﺘﺎج إﱃ ﻣﺤﺎﻛــﺎة ﺣﺎﺳ ﻮﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام أﺣﺪث ﺑﻴﺎﻧـﺎت اﻟﺮﺻـﺪ وأﻛـﺪ ﺳـﺎوﻻ أن اﻟﺘﻨﺒـﺆ ﺑﺎ ﺴـﺘﻘﺒﻞ اﻟﺒﻌﻴ ـﺪ ﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻼت ا ﻏ ﺠﺮات أﻣﺮ ﻣﺆﻛﺪ إﱃ ﺣﺪ ﻛﺒ ﻟﻜﻦ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪة ﺗﺘﺤﺪى اﻹﺟﻤﺎع اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ وﺗﺸ إﱃ أن ﻣﺼ ﻣﺠﺮة درب اﻟﺘﺒﺎﻧ ﺔ ﻻ ﻳﺰال ﺳﺆاﻻً . ﺎً ﻣﻔﺘﻮﺣ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام أﺣـﺪث وأدق ﺑﻴﺎﻧـﺎت اﻟﺮﺻـﺪ ا ﺘﺎﺣـﺔ ﻻ ﻳـﺰال ﻣﺴـﺘﻘﺒﻞ ا ﺤﻠﻴﺔ ا ﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﴩات ا ﺠﺮات ا ﺠﻤﻮﻋـﺔ ا ﺤﻠﻴـﺔ ا ﻜﻮﻧـﺔ ﻣـﻦ ﻋﴩات ا ﺠﺮات ﻏ ﻣﺆﻛﺪ وﻣـﻦ ا ﺜ ﻟﻼ ﻫﺘﻤﺎم أﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺠﺪ اﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻻً ﻣﺘﺴــﺎوﻳ ﺎً ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒــ ﺎً ﻟﺴـــﻴﻨﺎرﻳﻮ اﻻﻧﺪﻣﺎج ا ﻨﺘﴩ ﻋﲆ ﻧﻄﺎق واﺳﻊ أو ﻋﲆ اﻟﻌﻜـﺲ ﺳـﻴﻨﺎرﻳﻮ ﺑـﺪﻳﻞ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﺠﺮﺗـﺎ درب اﻟﺘﺒﺎﻧـﺔ و ا ـﺮأة ا ﺴﻠﺴ ـﻠﺔ ) اﻧﺪروﻣﻴــﺪا ( ﺳﺎ ﺘ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻗﺎل ﺳﺎواﻻ . ﻟﻘﺪ ﺑـﺪا اﺻﻄﺪام ا ﺠﺮﺗ أﻛﺜـﺮ اﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻻً ﺑﻜﺜ ﰲ ﻋﺎم 2012 ﴩ ـ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻧـ ﻋﺎ ﺎ اﻟﻔﻠﻚ روﻻﻧﺪ ﻓﺎﻧﺪرﻣﺎرﻳﻼﻧـﺪ وﺗﻮﻧﻲ ﺳـﻮن ﻣـﻦ ﻣﻌﻬـﺪ ﻋﻠـﻮم ﺗﻠﺴــﻜﻮب اﻟﻔﻀــﺎء ﰲ ﻣﺪﻳﻨــﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻴﻤﻮر ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼً ﻣﻔﺼﻼً رﺻـﺎد ﻷ ﺗﻠﺴﻜﻮب ﻫﺎﺑﻞ ﻋـﲆ ﻣـﺪى ﻓـﱰة ﺗﱰاوح ﺑ ﺧﻤﺲ وﺳﺒﻊ ﺳﻨﻮات ، ﺗﻠﺴﻜﻮب ﻫﺎﺑﻞ اﻟﻔﻀـﺎﺋﻲ ﻋـﲆ ﻣـﺪى ﻓـﱰة ﺗﱰاوح ﺑ ﺧﻤﺲ وﺳﺒﻊ ﺳـﻨﻮات ﺗ ﺸـ إﱃ اﺻﻄﺪام ﻣﺒﺎﴍ ﰲ ﻓﱰة ﻻ ﺗﺘﺠـﺎوز ﺧﻤﺴـﺔ ﻣﻠﻴﺎرات ﺳﻨﺔ . ﻣﻦ ا ﺜـ ﻟﻠﻐﺮاﺑـﺔ أﻧـﻪ ﻋـﲆ اﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ إﺿـﺎﻓﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧـﺎت ﺗﻠﺴـﻜﻮب ﻫﺎﺑـﻞ اﻷﻛﺜﺮ دﻗﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺟﻤﻌﺖ ﰲ اﻟﺴـﻨﻮات اﻷﺧـ ة أﺻــﺒﺤﻨﺎ اﻵن أﻗــﻞ ﻳﻘﻴ ﻨــﺎَ ﺑﺸــﺄن ﻧﺘﻴﺠــﺔ اﻻﺻﻄﺪام ا ﺤﺘﻤﻞ وﻳﻌـ ﻮد ذﻟـﻚ إﱃ اﻟ ﺘﺤﻠﻴـﻞ اﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻌﻘﻴـﺪ وﻷ اً ﻧﻨـﺎ ﻧﻔﻜـﺮ ﰲ ﻧﻈـﺎم أﻛﺜـﺮ اﻛﺘﻤﺎﻻً ﻟﻜﻦ اﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ اﻟﻮﺣﻴـﺪة ﻟﻠﻮﺻـﻮل إﱃ ةاﺗﺎ ﺗﻨﺒﺆ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﻮل ا ﺼـ اﻟﻨﻬـﺎﺋﻲ ﺠﺮة درب اﻟﺘﺒﺎﻧﺔ ﺳـﺘﻜﻮن ﻣـﻦ ﺧ ﻼل ﺑﻴﺎﻧـﺎت أﻓﻀـﻞ ﻛﻤـﺎ ﻗـﺎل ﺳــﺎواﻻ ﻫــﺬا ﻳــﱪز اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌــﺔ اﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻢ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺆدي ﻛﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺔ ﺟﺪﻳـ ﺪة إﱃ ﻓﻬـﻢ أﻋﻤـﻖ وأﻛ ﺜﺮ دﻗﺔ ﻟﻠﻜﻮن ﻣﻊ ﻓﺘﺢ ا ﺰﻳـﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ . درس ﻋﻠﻤ ـﺎء اﻟﻔﻠ ـﻚ 22 اً ﻣﺘﻐ ـ ﺎً ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋـﲆ اﻻﺻـ ﻄﺪام ا ﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﺑ ﻣﺠﺮﺗﻨﺎ وﺟﺎرﺗﻨﺎ ا ﺮأة ا ﺴﻠﺴـﻠﺔ ) اﻧﺪروﻣﻴـﺪا ( وأﺟـﺮوا ﻣﺎﺋـﺔ أﻟـﻒ ﻣﺤﺎﻛـﺎة ﺣﺎﺳــﻮﺑﻴﺔ ﺗُﺴﻤﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﻮﻧﺖ ﻛﺎرﻟﻮ ﺗﻤﺘﺪ إﱃ 10 ﻣﻠﻴﺎرات ﺳﻨﺔ ﰲ ا ﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ . ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﻫﺬﻩ اﻟﻤ ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺻﻮراﻟﻤﺠﺮات اﻟـﺨﺎرﺟ ﺔ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺳ ﻨﺎر ﻮﻫﺎت ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘ ﺎك ﻣﺠﺮﻨﺎ در ﺑ اﻟﺘ ﺎﻧـــﺔ وﻣﺠـــﺮة اﻟﻤـــﺮأة اﻟﻤﺴﻠﺴـــﻠﺔ ) ـــﺪا أﻧﺪروﻣ ( اﻟﻤﺠـــﺎورة . ﻓـــﻲ اﻟ ﺼـــﻮرة رﻗـــﻢ 1 ﻣﻨﻈـــﺮ واﺳـــﻊ اﻟﻤﺠـــﺎل ﻣـــﻦ اﻟﻤﺴـــــﺢ اﻟﺮﻗـــــﻲ ) DSS ( ﻈﻬـــــﺮاﻟ ﻤﺠـــــﺮ M81 و M82 ﻤﺜـــــﺎل ﻋﻠـــــﻰ ﻣـــــﺮورﻣﺠﺮـــــﻲدر اﻟﺘ ﺎﻧـــــﺔ واﻟﻤـــــﺮأة اﻟﻤﺴﻠﺴـﻠﺔ ــﺪا أﻧﺪروﻣ ﺑﺠﺎﻧــﺐ ﻌﻀــﻬﻤﺎ ﻋﻠــﻰﻣﺴـﺎﻓﺎت ﻛﺒــ ة . ﺗﻈﻬـﺮ اﻟﺼـﻮرة رﻗــﻢ 2 اﻟﻤﺠﺮــﺎن NGC6786 ﻤﺎ وﻫ زوج ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺠﺮات اﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﻋﻠﺔ ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ان ﺎت ﻋﻼﻣ واﺿﺤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺿﻄﺮا ﺎت ﻣﺪ ﺔ ﻣﺮور ﻌﺪ ﻗﺮ ﺐ ﺑ ﻨﻬﻤﺎ . ﺗﻈﻬﺮ اﻟﺼﻮرة رﻗﻢ 3 اﻟﻤﺠﺮة NGC520 وﻫﻲ أﺷ ﮫ ﺑﺤﺎدث ﻗﻄﺎر ﻮﻧﻲﺣ ﺚ ﺗﻨﺪﻣﺞ ﻣﺠﺮﺎن ﻨﺸﺎطﻣﻌﺎً . [NASA, ESA, STScI, Till Sawala (University of Helsinki), DSS, J. DePasquale (STScI)] ﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺑ ﺎﻧﺎت ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﺴ ﻮب ﻫﺎﺑﻞ اﻟﻔﻀﺎﺋﻲﻃﻮ ـﺎة راﻟﻌﻠﻤـﺎء ﻫـﺬﻩ اﻟﻤﺤﺎ ﻣﺠﺮﻨـــــــــﺎ در اﻟﺘ ﺎﻧـــــــــﺔ وﻣﺠـــــــــﺮة ﻟﻼﺻـــــــــﻄﺪام اﻟﻤ ﺎﺷـــــــــﺮ ﺑـــــــــ اﻟﻤـــــــــﺮأة اﻟﻤﺴﻠﺴـــــــــ ﺔﻠ ) أﻧﺪروﻣ ﺪا ( . ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮاﻗﻊ ﻫﻨـﺎك اﺣﺘﻤـﺎل ﻨﺴـ ﺔ 50 % ﻓﻘـﻂ ﻻﺻـﻄﺪام اﻟﻤﺠـﺮ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻌﺸﺮة ﻣﻠ ﺎراتﺳﻨﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺔ . [NASA/ESA, space.com] ﺳﺒﺘﻤﺒﺮ - ﺃﻛﺘﻮﺑﺮ 2 0 2 5